Sunday, November 1, 2026
Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)
This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.
1. What Viking Sats is
Viking Sats is a research brief for high-income W-2 professionals — physicians, pilots, engineers, partners — who have a real job and want a grown-up crypto playbook. It is not a Discord, not a trade desk, and not a personal alert service. We write about Bitcoin and Ethereum and the listed products most readers actually use: spot ETFs, brokerage accounts, IRAs. Same public watchlist for every reader. General research, not advice.
Paid subscriptions are open: $20/month, $200/year, or $300 Founding Member. Paid is depth in separate posts — sizing, taxable vs IRA, ETF vs coin, and a note for each Fed meeting. This Sunday issue stays fully free, and it always will.
2. What mattered this week
Two things happened, a day apart. On Wednesday the Fed held. On Thursday the largest crypto exchange in the world disclosed the largest theft on record.
Price first. Issue 8 closed Sunday morning October 25 near $80,473 Bitcoin. Sunday morning November 1, Coinbase and Yahoo both printed near $77,752 — about 3.4 percent lower. Coinbase’s daily range since Issue 8 ran from an October 29 high near $81,890 to an October 30 low near $76,141. Ethereum sat near $2,259 Sunday morning (Coinbase / Yahoo), about 3.5 percent below Issue 8’s ~$2,340, with a high near $2,390 (October 28) and a low near $2,170 (October 30).
The Fed. On October 28 the FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00 percent by a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented; both wanted a quarter-point hike. The statement said “inflation remains elevated” and that “the accumulation of more information” will guide the next step (Federal Reserve). Chair Kevin Warsh also announced that one 2027 meeting will be a strategy-only session with no rate vote. That was the expected outcome: last Sunday’s FedWatch read was 88 percent hold.
Binance. On October 29, Binance disclosed that about $6.3 billion in tokens had been taken from its hot wallets, the online wallets an exchange uses for everyday payouts. Withdrawals were paused. On October 31 the FBI attributed the theft to North Korea’s TraderTraitor group, the same group blamed for the 2025 Bybit theft (CBS News). Binance says it has replaced about 95 percent of the affected assets from its user-protection fund, insurance fund, and corporate treasury, says its BTC and ETH balances are fully backed, and began a phased withdrawal restart this morning, Bitcoin first and then Ethereum (CNBC; CoinDesk). Replacing assets is not the same as recovering them; the stolen funds have not been returned.
ETF flows. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds took in $110.3 million on October 26, $176.0 million on October 27, $137.3 million on October 28, and $17.2 million on October 29 — four straight inflow days. Then on Friday, October 30, the first full U.S. session after the Binance disclosure, they lost $643.2 million, the largest single-day outflow since June 25 (Farside; crypto.news). Net for the week: about −$202.4 million. IBIT still finished the week positive by about $176.9 million; Fidelity’s FBTC lost about $166 million and ARK’s ARKB about $129.5 million (crypto.news). Flow tables do not say why holders redeemed, and Friday also saw broad tech weakness, so we do not pin the number on the hack. Ether funds lost money on all five sessions, about −$431.4 million for the week, roughly double the prior week’s −$220.7 million. Combined Bitcoin-plus-ether product flows were about −$633.8 million, versus about +$80.5 million the week before. Summing Farside’s daily totals, October ended about $515.9 million net out of the Bitcoin funds (crypto.news).
Friday’s listed closes: IBIT $43.36, FBTC $66.71, ETHA $50.42 (Yahoo), each down from the October 23 closes ($45.96 / $70.61 / $54.08). The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday near 4.93 percent, from about 4.99 percent a week earlier, after touching about 5.05 percent on decision day (Yahoo ^TNX).
The next date. CME FedWatch odds for the December 9 meeting slipped during the week but still lean toward a hike: Friday reports ranged from about 70 to 80 percent hike (FXBus 74.9/25.1 early Friday; KuCoin/BlockBeats 79.6/20.4; a futures-based dashboard at Friday’s close, 70/30). On CLARITY, still nothing new: the September 15 cloture vote (49–50) remains the latest Senate action.
3. The useful frame this week: where the coin sits is its own decision
For three weeks the frame has been that the calendar sets size, not the news. This week adds a lane we have not talked about since the ETF-vs-coin issue: custody, meaning who actually holds the coins and where.
A hack at an exchange is not new information about what Bitcoin or Ethereum is. It is information about one place where coins sit. Those are different questions, and it is worth answering them separately. Thesis is “do I want BTC or ETH exposure at all.” Custody is “if I hold it, who holds the keys” — an ETF custodian, a brokerage, an exchange account, or a wallet you control. Each has a different failure mode. An exchange account depends on that exchange’s security and its ability to cover losses, which is exactly what Binance is being tested on now. A spot ETF puts a regulated fund and custodian in between, at the cost of a fee and market hours. Self-custody removes the middleman and hands the risk of lost keys to you.
None of that changes because of one bad Thursday, and none of it should be decided in a week when the headline is the biggest theft on record. What the week does offer is a clean, low-stakes prompt: write down where each piece of your exposure actually sits, and whether you chose that on purpose. The size decision still has a date, December 9.
4. Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)
Same list for every reader. Sunday morning November 1 prints — not a buy list, not an alert.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$77,752 Sunday morning Nov 1 (~7:58 AM ET; Coinbase spot); Yahoo ~$77,752. Coinbase daily high ~$81,890 (Oct 29) / low ~$76,141 (Oct 30). Issue 8 Sunday AM Oct 25 ~$80,473.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $43.36 close Fri Oct 30 (Yahoo); 0.25% expense ratio (Farside fee row).
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $66.71 close Fri Oct 30 (Yahoo); 0.25%.
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,259 Sunday morning Nov 1 (Coinbase / Yahoo). Issue 8 Sunday AM ~$2,340. Coinbase daily high ~$2,390 (Oct 28) / low ~$2,170 (Oct 30).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $50.42 close Fri Oct 30 (Yahoo); 0.25%.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside): Oct 26 +$110.3M; Oct 27 +$176.0M; Oct 28 +$137.3M; Oct 29 +$17.2M; Oct 30 −$643.2M; week Oct 26–30 ≈ −$202.4M. Ether funds (Farside): Oct 26 −$88.6M; Oct 27 −$60.2M; Oct 28 −$21.4M; Oct 29 −$105.5M; Oct 30 −$155.7M; week ≈ −$431.4M. Combined week ≈ −$633.8M.
5. What we will cover next
Next Sunday: whether the Binance restart holds, the week’s flows, and the December 9 odds. For paid subscribers, November’s deep dive is on ETF flows — the issuer-level ledger behind the weekly numbers in this section.
If you have a real job, you do not need to act on the biggest hack on record. You need to know where your coins sit, the week’s facts, and the date of the next actual decision. That is the brief.
Disclosure: The author holds BTC, ETH, and IBIT as of November 1, 2026. The author does not trade any name covered in this post from 3 calendar days before to 3 calendar days after publication (October 29–November 4, 2026 for a Sunday November 1 publish). One pre-scheduled automatic recurring purchase of $100 of BTC on Coinbase may execute inside that window; it is not a discretionary trade. The author receives no compensation from any company covered here. This is general research, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Viking Sats is general research, not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Viking Sats, LLC is not a registered investment adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Do your own work, and talk to your own advisers before you act.
Sources: Coinbase spot price API, BTC-USD and ETH-USD, plus Coinbase Exchange daily candles (retrieved ~7:58 AM ET Nov 1, 2026); Yahoo Finance quotes for BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, FBTC, ETHA, and ^TNX (closes Fri Oct 30); Farside Investors spot ETF flow tables, Bitcoin and Ethereum (retrieved ~7:58 AM ET Nov 1, 2026); crypto.news on the Oct 30 outflow; Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Oct 28 and Chair Warsh press conference transcript; CNBC on the Fed decision; CNBC on Binance coverage and withdrawals; CBS News on the FBI attribution; CoinDesk on the phased restart; CME FedWatch via secondary reports: FXBus, Oct 30, KuCoin/BlockBeats, Oct 30, and cdes.com Fed rates dashboard; U.S. Senate cloture motions list (no new CLARITY cloture).