Sunday, October 25, 2026
Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)
This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.
1. What Viking Sats is
Viking Sats is a research brief for high-income W-2 professionals — physicians, pilots, engineers, partners — who have a real job and want a grown-up crypto playbook. It is not a Discord, not a trade desk, and not a personal alert service. We write about Bitcoin and Ethereum and the listed products most readers actually use: spot ETFs, brokerage accounts, IRAs. Same public watchlist for every reader. General research, not advice.
Paid subscriptions are open: $20/month, $200/year, or $300 Founding Member. Paid is depth in separate posts — sizing, taxable vs IRA, ETF vs coin, and a note for each Fed meeting. This Sunday issue stays fully free, and it always will.
2. What mattered this week
Spot made a round trip and finished a little lower. Issue 7 closed Sunday morning October 18 near $81,921 Bitcoin. Sunday morning October 25, Coinbase and Yahoo both printed near $80,473 — about 1.8 percent softer. Coinbase’s band since Issue 7 ran from an October 21 high near $84,856 to an October 24 low near $79,107. Ethereum sat near $2,340 Sunday morning (Coinbase / Yahoo), about 3.0 percent below Issue 7’s ~$2,413, with a week high near $2,524 (October 21) and a low near $2,276 (October 24).
ETF flows did the same round trip, on a delay. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds took in $526.7 million on October 19, $23.2 million on October 20, and $524.8 million on October 21 as price climbed toward $85,000. Then price broke on Thursday in a broad tech-and-crypto selloff, and the funds lost $635.6 million on October 22 — the largest single-day outflow since June 25 (SoSoValue via CryptoSlate) — and another $137.9 million on Friday October 23. Net for the five sessions: about +$301.2 million (Farside, provisional: one small fund’s Friday cell is still blank). That ends two straight outflow weeks (−$678.9 million October 5–9; −$228.4 million October 12–16). Ether funds lost about −$220.7 million (Farside, provisional), with outflows on three of five sessions and small inflows on October 21 and 23; that is a smaller loss than the prior week’s −$320.1 million. Combined Bitcoin-plus-ether product flows were about +$80.5 million, versus about −$548.5 million the week before.
A research note from DWF Labs, published this week, put words to the pattern: across 694 trading days since January 2024, daily ETF flows tracked the prior five days of Bitcoin price (correlation about 0.54) and told almost nothing about the next five (about 0.03). “ETF flows confirm moves; they don’t predict them” (Cointelegraph). This week fit that description.
Friday’s listed closes (markets closed for the weekend): IBIT $45.96, FBTC $70.61, ETHA $54.08 (Yahoo) — each a little below Issue 7’s Friday October 16 closes ($46.15 / $70.85 / $54.51).
On policy, the week was quieter than the last one. CME FedWatch odds for the October 27–28 meeting kept drifting toward a hold: secondary reports on Friday put it near 86–92 percent hold / 8–14 percent hike (Invezz 86/14; Investing.com’s monitor via Econ Data Tools 92/8 early Friday; SessionOpen 90/10 at Friday’s close), and a Sunday-morning read was 88 percent hold / 12 percent hike (Kryptomagazin FedWatch terminal, as of 11:02 UTC October 25). A week ago the Sunday read was 82/18. The bigger number now sits one meeting further out: the same terminal prices about a 79 percent chance of at least one quarter-point hike by the December 9 meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday near 4.99 percent, down from about 5.10 percent the Friday before (Yahoo ^TNX). On CLARITY, still nothing new: the September 15 cloture vote (49–50, short of sixty) is the latest action, with the motion to reconsider on the table. We report the process, not a price thesis. The decision date is Wednesday: October 28.
3. The useful frame this week: flows follow price; size follows the calendar
Two weeks ago the frame was that flows can reverse twice and the decision date does not. Last week, that a print can move the odds but not the meeting. This week the flows themselves gave the cleanest example yet. About $1.07 billion came in over three sessions while Bitcoin rose toward $85,000, and about $774 million left over the next two as it fell back toward $80,000. The money arrived after the price went up and left after the price went down.
That matters if you have a real job, because it is easy to read a big inflow day as a signal and a big outflow day as a warning. If the flows mostly confirm what price already did, then reacting to Monday’s $527 million or Thursday’s −$636 million is reacting to the price twice. Neither day told you anything about Wednesday’s meeting.
So keep the decisions in their lanes. Thesis is “do I want Bitcoin or Ethereum exposure.” Product is “which wrapper delivers it.” Location is “taxable or IRA.” Size is set for the date on the calendar — this time, three days away — and then left alone until that date arrives. The flows will be in next Sunday’s issue either way.
4. Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)
Same list for every reader. Sunday morning October 25 prints — not a buy list, not an alert.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$80,473 Sunday morning Oct 25 (~7:52 AM ET; Coinbase spot); Yahoo ~$80,474. Coinbase daily high ~$84,856 (Oct 21) / low ~$79,107 (Oct 24). Issue 7 Sunday AM Oct 18 ~$81,921.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $45.96 close Fri Oct 23 (Yahoo); 0.25% expense ratio (Farside fee row).
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $70.61 close Fri Oct 23 (Yahoo); 0.25%.
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,340 Sunday morning Oct 25 (Coinbase / Yahoo). Issue 7 Sunday AM ~$2,413. Coinbase daily high ~$2,524 (Oct 21) / low ~$2,276 (Oct 24).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $54.08 close Fri Oct 23 (Yahoo); NAV $54.16 Oct 23 (iShares); 0.25%.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside): Oct 19 +$526.7M; Oct 20 +$23.2M; Oct 21 +$524.8M; Oct 22 −$635.6M; Oct 23 −$137.9M; week Oct 19–23 ≈ +$301.2M (provisional). Ether funds (Farside): Oct 19 −$103.3M; Oct 20 −$26.1M; Oct 21 +$14.9M; Oct 22 −$110.6M; Oct 23 +$4.4M; week ≈ −$220.7M (provisional). Combined week ≈ +$80.5M.
Correction: Issue 4 listed ETHA near $20; it actually traded near $54. We regret the error.
5. What we will cover next
The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and October 28 is the decision date. A pre-FOMC note for paid subscribers is planned, mapping the hike and hold outcomes against FedWatch and the September projections. Next Sunday’s free issue reports what the meeting actually did, plus the week’s flows.
If you have a real job, you do not need to resize because a $500 million day showed up in a flow table. You need the week’s facts, one constraint that survives a round trip, and the date of the next actual decision. That is the brief.
Disclosure: The author holds BTC, ETH, and IBIT as of October 25, 2026. The author does not trade any name covered in this post from 3 calendar days before to 3 calendar days after publication (October 22–October 28, 2026 for a Sunday October 25 publish). One pre-scheduled automatic recurring purchase of $100 of BTC on Coinbase executed inside that window; it was not a discretionary trade. The author receives no compensation from any company covered here. This is general research, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Viking Sats is general research, not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Viking Sats, LLC is not a registered investment adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Do your own work, and talk to your own advisers before you act.
Sources: Coinbase spot price API, BTC-USD and ETH-USD, plus Coinbase Exchange daily candles (retrieved ~7:52 AM ET Oct 25, 2026); Yahoo Finance quotes for BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, FBTC, ETHA, and ^TNX (ETF closes Fri Oct 23); iShares ETHA fund page (NAV Oct 23); Farside Investors spot ETF flow tables, Bitcoin and Ethereum (retrieved ~7:52 AM ET Oct 25, 2026); CryptoSlate on the Oct 22 outflow; Forbes, Oct 22; Cointelegraph on DWF Labs flow research; CME FedWatch via secondary reports: Invezz, Oct 23, Econ Data Tools, Oct 23, SessionOpen Fed Watch, and the Kryptomagazin FedWatch terminal (as of 11:02 UTC Oct 25); U.S. Senate roll call Vote 234 on CLARITY and Senate cloture motions list (no new CLARITY cloture through Oct 19).