Sunday, September 20, 2026
Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)
This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.
1. What Viking Sats is
Viking Sats is a research brief for high-income W-2 professionals — physicians, pilots, engineers, partners — who have a real job and want a grown-up crypto playbook. It is not a Discord, not a trade desk, and not a personal alert service. We write about Bitcoin and Ethereum and the listed products most readers actually use: spot ETFs, brokerage accounts, IRAs. Same public watchlist for every reader. General research, not advice.
2. What mattered this week
The calendar Issue 2 sized for arrived. The Federal Open Market Committee met September 15–16 and on Wednesday raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimous. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press-conference line matched Jackson Hole: the Committee was not confident underlying inflation was moving to 2 percent clearly and at sufficient speed, so it removed “a dose of accommodation.” It was the first hike since 2023.
The new Summary of Economic Projections is the lasting print, not the Wednesday headline. Median real GDP is 2.3 percent this year and 2.4 percent next. Median total PCE inflation is 3.7 percent this year and 2.3 percent next; unemployment holds near 4.1 percent. The median appropriate federal funds rate is 4.1 percent at year-end 2026 and again at year-end 2027, then 3.9 percent in 2028 and 3.6 percent in 2029. Warsh again submitted no personal projection. Secondary readouts of the dots say sixteen of eighteen participants (Warsh does not submit a dot) expect at least one more hike this year; four of those see two more; two see the Committee stop after this move.
Bitcoin did not trade the week as a straight line. Issue 2 closed Sunday morning September 13 near $76,820–$76,825. Sunday morning September 20, Coinbase and Yahoo both printed near $80,453–$80,454 — about 4.7 percent firmer. The path mattered more than the net: Coinbase’s seven-day band ran from a September 15 low near $74,888 to a September 19 high near $81,925. FOMC day (September 16) closed near $76,145 after probing the mid-$74,900s. Friday September 18 then ran from the mid-$76,000s to a high near $81,388 and closed near $80,875. Ethereum Sunday morning sat about $2,579 (Coinbase / Yahoo), roughly 3.9 percent above Issue 2’s ~$2,482, with a week low near $2,357 (September 15) and a high near $2,668 (September 19).
ETF flows told the same two-day story. On FOMC day, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds lost $295.9 million and ether funds lost $224.1 million — about $520 million combined (Farside). Thursday Bitcoin funds took back $159.5 million; Friday they took in $433.0 million (Fidelity’s FBTC alone +$310.7 million).
Meeting-week Bitcoin net (September 15–18) was still about −$154 million after the −$450.4 million session on September 15, but Wednesday-through-Friday was a net +$296.6 million. Ether funds were −$261.7 million across those four sessions even after Friday’s +$143.7 million. September month-to-date Bitcoin flows through September 18 were still about +$313 million (Farside daily sum).
Process on the same calendar: Tuesday’s Senate cloture vote on the motion to proceed to the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) failed 49–50 — short of sixty. That is not final passage either way; a motion to reconsider was entered. We report the vote, not a price thesis.
Secondary reports of CME FedWatch after the hike put the next meeting — October 27–28 — near a coin flip on another 25 basis points (one flash reading ~49.8% hike / ~50.2% hold). Those odds will move with the data.
3. The useful frame this week: the next decision date
Issue 2’s frame was size for the SEP, not the ETF streak. The SEP printed. The frame does not expire.
A $296 million three-day Bitcoin inflow after a $520 million combined FOMC-day outflow can both be true. Neither answers whether October needs another hike. The median dots already pencil year-end 2026 at 4.1 percent — one more quarter-point from here if that median holds. Bitcoin and the spot ETFs will reprice on that tape the way they did after Jackson Hole and after Wednesday’s statement: not because a Discord called it, but because the two-year and risk assets share a screen.
A practical rule, not a recommendation: treat the next decision date as October 28 (statement day), not Wednesday’s dump or Friday’s rebound. If the position only made sense while Friday’s $433 million print felt like confirmation, it was sized for a session. Sessions reverse. Meetings do not. Account location (taxable vs IRA) is the free teaser next Sunday and the paid layer from October 4 — not this letter.
4. Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)
Same list for every reader. Sunday morning September 20 prints — not a buy list, not an alert.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$80,453–$80,454 Sunday morning Sep 20 (~8:10 AM ET; Coinbase product/bid-ask and Yahoo). ~7-day Coinbase high ~$81,925 (Sep 19) / low ~$74,888 (Sep 15). Issue 2 Sunday AM Sep 13 ~$76,820–$76,825.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $46.02 close Fri Sep 18 (Yahoo); 0.25% expense ratio. (U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend.)
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $70.66 close Fri Sep 18 (Yahoo); 0.25%. Friday flow +$310.7 million (Farside).
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,579 Sunday morning Sep 20 (Coinbase / Yahoo). Issue 2 Sunday AM ~$2,482. ~7-day Coinbase high ~$2,668 (Sep 19) / low ~$2,357 (Sep 15).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $19.92 close Fri Sep 18 (Yahoo); 0.25%.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside): Sep 15 −$450.4M; Sep 16 −$295.9M; Sep 17 +$159.5M; Sep 18 +$433.0M; Sep MTD through Sep 18 ≈ +$313M. Ether funds (Farside): Sep 15 −$142.0M; Sep 16 −$224.1M; Sep 17 −$39.3M; Sep 18 +$143.7M.
5. What we will cover next
Issue 4 (Sunday September 27) is the free taxable-vs-IRA teaser — why account location matters once IBIT and ETHA are the default on-ramp, without turning this letter into a tax return. Paid depth starts October 4 at $20/month or $200/year: sizing, taxable vs IRA, ETF vs coin — not more coins or hot takes. The next FOMC is October 27–28; we will treat October 28 as the decision date the same way we treated September 17.
If you have a real job, you do not need a new thesis every Sunday. You need the week’s facts, one constraint that survives a Fed week, and a date for the next actual decision. That is the brief.
Viking Sats, LLC — Georgia. This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.
Sources: Coinbase Advanced Trade BTC-USD / ETH-USD ticker and daily candles (retrieved ~8:09–8:10 AM ET Sep 20, 2026); Yahoo Finance chart API BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, FBTC, ETHA (same window; ETF closes Fri Sep 18); Farside Investors U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flow tables (retrieved Sep 20, 2026); Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, FOMC decision / SEP projections Sep 16, 2026; Warsh press-conference opening transcript PDF Sep 16, 2026; CNBC Fed rate decision Sep 16, 2026; EY FOMC Meeting Sep 15–16 note; CME FedWatch via secondary reports (BlockBeats / Gate) post-hike October odds; U.S. Senate roll call / The Hill / NYT on CLARITY cloture Sep 15, 2026 (49–50). Fact table: /workspace/viking-sats/issue-03-facts.md.