Viking Sats

Issue 8 — Flows follow price; size follows the calendar

Nils Roed — Sun, 25 Oct 2026 20:15:35 GMT

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)

This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

1. What Viking Sats is

Viking Sats is a research brief for high-income W-2 professionals — physicians, pilots, engineers, partners — who have a real job and want a grown-up crypto playbook. It is not a Discord, not a trade desk, and not a personal alert service. We write about Bitcoin and Ethereum and the listed products most readers actually use: spot ETFs, brokerage accounts, IRAs. Same public watchlist for every reader. General research, not advice.

Paid subscriptions are open: $20/month, $200/year, or $300 Founding Member. Paid is depth in separate posts — sizing, taxable vs IRA, ETF vs coin, and a note for each Fed meeting. This Sunday issue stays fully free, and it always will.

2. What mattered this week

Spot made a round trip and finished a little lower. Issue 7 closed Sunday morning October 18 near $81,921 Bitcoin. Sunday morning October 25, Coinbase and Yahoo both printed near $80,473 — about 1.8 percent softer. Coinbase’s band since Issue 7 ran from an October 21 high near $84,856 to an October 24 low near $79,107. Ethereum sat near $2,340 Sunday morning (Coinbase / Yahoo), about 3.0 percent below Issue 7’s ~$2,413, with a week high near $2,524 (October 21) and a low near $2,276 (October 24).

ETF flows did the same round trip, on a delay. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds took in $526.7 million on October 19, $23.2 million on October 20, and $524.8 million on October 21 as price climbed toward $85,000. Then price broke on Thursday in a broad tech-and-crypto selloff, and the funds lost $635.6 million on October 22 — the largest single-day outflow since June 25 (SoSoValue via CryptoSlate) — and another $137.9 million on Friday October 23. Net for the five sessions: about +$301.2 million (Farside, provisional: one small fund’s Friday cell is still blank). That ends two straight outflow weeks (−$678.9 million October 5–9; −$228.4 million October 12–16). Ether funds lost about −$220.7 million (Farside, provisional), with outflows on three of five sessions and small inflows on October 21 and 23; that is a smaller loss than the prior week’s −$320.1 million. Combined Bitcoin-plus-ether product flows were about +$80.5 million, versus about −$548.5 million the week before.

A research note from DWF Labs, published this week, put words to the pattern: across 694 trading days since January 2024, daily ETF flows tracked the prior five days of Bitcoin price (correlation about 0.54) and told almost nothing about the next five (about 0.03). “ETF flows confirm moves; they don’t predict them” (Cointelegraph). This week fit that description.

Friday’s listed closes (markets closed for the weekend): IBIT $45.96, FBTC $70.61, ETHA $54.08 (Yahoo) — each a little below Issue 7’s Friday October 16 closes ($46.15 / $70.85 / $54.51).

On policy, the week was quieter than the last one. CME FedWatch odds for the October 27–28 meeting kept drifting toward a hold: secondary reports on Friday put it near 86–92 percent hold / 8–14 percent hike (Invezz 86/14; Investing.com’s monitor via Econ Data Tools 92/8 early Friday; SessionOpen 90/10 at Friday’s close), and a Sunday-morning read was 88 percent hold / 12 percent hike (Kryptomagazin FedWatch terminal, as of 11:02 UTC October 25). A week ago the Sunday read was 82/18. The bigger number now sits one meeting further out: the same terminal prices about a 79 percent chance of at least one quarter-point hike by the December 9 meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday near 4.99 percent, down from about 5.10 percent the Friday before (Yahoo ^TNX). On CLARITY, still nothing new: the September 15 cloture vote (49–50, short of sixty) is the latest action, with the motion to reconsider on the table. We report the process, not a price thesis. The decision date is Wednesday: October 28.

3. The useful frame this week: flows follow price; size follows the calendar

Two weeks ago the frame was that flows can reverse twice and the decision date does not. Last week, that a print can move the odds but not the meeting. This week the flows themselves gave the cleanest example yet. About $1.07 billion came in over three sessions while Bitcoin rose toward $85,000, and about $774 million left over the next two as it fell back toward $80,000. The money arrived after the price went up and left after the price went down.

That matters if you have a real job, because it is easy to read a big inflow day as a signal and a big outflow day as a warning. If the flows mostly confirm what price already did, then reacting to Monday’s $527 million or Thursday’s −$636 million is reacting to the price twice. Neither day told you anything about Wednesday’s meeting.

So keep the decisions in their lanes. Thesis is “do I want Bitcoin or Ethereum exposure.” Product is “which wrapper delivers it.” Location is “taxable or IRA.” Size is set for the date on the calendar — this time, three days away — and then left alone until that date arrives. The flows will be in next Sunday’s issue either way.

4. Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)

Same list for every reader. Sunday morning October 25 prints — not a buy list, not an alert.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$80,473 Sunday morning Oct 25 (~7:52 AM ET; Coinbase spot); Yahoo ~$80,474. Coinbase daily high ~$84,856 (Oct 21) / low ~$79,107 (Oct 24). Issue 7 Sunday AM Oct 18 ~$81,921.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $45.96 close Fri Oct 23 (Yahoo); 0.25% expense ratio (Farside fee row).
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $70.61 close Fri Oct 23 (Yahoo); 0.25%.
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,340 Sunday morning Oct 25 (Coinbase / Yahoo). Issue 7 Sunday AM ~$2,413. Coinbase daily high ~$2,524 (Oct 21) / low ~$2,276 (Oct 24).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $54.08 close Fri Oct 23 (Yahoo); NAV $54.16 Oct 23 (iShares); 0.25%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside): Oct 19 +$526.7M; Oct 20 +$23.2M; Oct 21 +$524.8M; Oct 22 −$635.6M; Oct 23 −$137.9M; week Oct 19–23 ≈ +$301.2M (provisional). Ether funds (Farside): Oct 19 −$103.3M; Oct 20 −$26.1M; Oct 21 +$14.9M; Oct 22 −$110.6M; Oct 23 +$4.4M; week ≈ −$220.7M (provisional). Combined week ≈ +$80.5M.

Correction: Issue 4 listed ETHA near $20; it actually traded near $54. We regret the error.

5. What we will cover next

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and October 28 is the decision date. A pre-FOMC note for paid subscribers is planned, mapping the hike and hold outcomes against FedWatch and the September projections. Next Sunday’s free issue reports what the meeting actually did, plus the week’s flows.

If you have a real job, you do not need to resize because a $500 million day showed up in a flow table. You need the week’s facts, one constraint that survives a round trip, and the date of the next actual decision. That is the brief.

Disclosure: The author holds BTC, ETH, and IBIT as of October 25, 2026. The author does not trade any name covered in this post from 3 calendar days before to 3 calendar days after publication (October 22–October 28, 2026 for a Sunday October 25 publish). One pre-scheduled automatic recurring purchase of $100 of BTC on Coinbase executed inside that window; it was not a discretionary trade. The author receives no compensation from any company covered here. This is general research, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Viking Sats is general research, not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice. Viking Sats, LLC is not a registered investment adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Do your own work, and talk to your own advisers before you act.

Sources: Coinbase spot price API, BTC-USD and ETH-USD, plus Coinbase Exchange daily candles (retrieved ~7:52 AM ET Oct 25, 2026); Yahoo Finance quotes for BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, FBTC, ETHA, and ^TNX (ETF closes Fri Oct 23); iShares ETHA fund page (NAV Oct 23); Farside Investors spot ETF flow tables, Bitcoin and Ethereum (retrieved ~7:52 AM ET Oct 25, 2026); CryptoSlate on the Oct 22 outflow; Forbes, Oct 22; Cointelegraph on DWF Labs flow research; CME FedWatch via secondary reports: Invezz, Oct 23, Econ Data Tools, Oct 23, SessionOpen Fed Watch, and the Kryptomagazin FedWatch terminal (as of 11:02 UTC Oct 25); U.S. Senate roll call Vote 234 on CLARITY and Senate cloture motions list (no new CLARITY cloture through Oct 19).

A print can move the odds; it cannot move the meeting

Nils Roed — Sun, 18 Oct 2026 12:41:11 GMT

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)

This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

1. What Viking Sats is

Paid subscriptions open today: $20/month, $200/year, or $300 Founding Member. Paid is depth in separate posts — sizing, taxable vs IRA, ETF vs coin, and a note for each Fed meeting. This Sunday issue stays fully free, and it always will.

2. What mattered this week

Spot drifted lower again, with less drama than last week. Issue 6 closed Sunday morning October 11 near $83,083 Bitcoin. Sunday morning October 18, Coinbase and Yahoo both printed near $81,921 — about 1.4 percent softer. Coinbase’s band since Issue 6 ran from an October 12 high near $84,262 to an October 15 low near $79,676, the day after CPI. Ethereum sat near $2,413 Sunday morning (Coinbase / Yahoo), about 3.6 percent below Issue 6’s ~$2,504, with a week high near $2,577 (October 12) and a low near $2,313 (October 15).

ETF outflows continued, at a smaller size. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds lost $65.4 million on October 12, took in $175.7 million on October 13, lost $261.4 million on October 14, took in $5.1 million on October 15, and lost $82.4 million on Friday October 16 — about −$228.4 million for the five sessions (Farside). That is the second straight outflow week, after about −$678.9 million for October 5–9. Ether funds lost about −$320.1 million for the week, with only one inflow session (October 13, +$24.8 million); nine of the last ten ether sessions have been outflows (Farside). Combined Bitcoin-plus-ether product flows were about −$548.5 million, versus about −$1.22 billion the week before.

Friday’s listed closes (markets closed for the weekend): IBIT $46.15, FBTC $70.85, ETHA $54.51 (Yahoo) — each a little below Issue 6’s Friday October 9 closes ($46.55 / $71.54 / $55.99).

The week’s macro event was inflation. September CPI, released Wednesday October 14, rose 0.6 percent on the month and 3.7 percent over the year (up from 3.4 percent in August); core rose 0.3 percent and 2.6 percent over the year (BLS). Gasoline alone accounted for more than half of the monthly increase. Core came in a tenth above the consensus on both measures (CNBC). Secondary reports put September producer prices up 1.3 percent on the month and retail sales up 0.8 percent (Invezz).

FedWatch took the round trip inside three sessions. Secondary reports of CME FedWatch had October 27–28 hike odds near 18 percent a week ago, pushed them into the mid-40s or higher right after Wednesday’s CPI, eased them to about 28 percent Thursday, and brought them back to about 16 percent hike / 84 percent hold by Friday (ActionForex; Invezz showed 85.1 percent hold). A Sunday-morning read was 18 percent hike / 82 percent hold (Kryptomagazin FedWatch terminal, as of 06:01 UTC October 18). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking Friday, said only, “I don’t prejudge meetings.” On CLARITY, nothing new: the September 15 cloture vote (49–50, short of sixty) is still the latest action, with the motion to reconsider on the table. We report the process, not a price thesis. The decision date is unchanged: October 28.

3. The useful frame this week: a print can move the odds; it cannot move the meeting

Last week’s frame was that flows can reverse twice and the decision date does not. This week put the same idea through a harder test. A hot inflation print moved October hike odds from under a fifth to somewhere near half and back again in about 48 hours. Nothing about the meeting changed. It is still October 27–28, the statement is still Wednesday, and the odds on Sunday look almost exactly like the odds a week ago.

That is worth sitting with if you have a real job. If you had resized on Wednesday morning, you would have been reacting to a number that was gone by Friday. If you were tempted to resize on Friday because the odds “came back,” you would have been reacting to the same round trip from the other side. In both cases the position would have been sized for a probability print, not for the meeting.

The same applies to the flows. Two straight outflow weeks are a fact worth reporting, and we will keep reporting them. They are not, by themselves, a thesis. Thesis is “do I want Bitcoin or Ethereum exposure.” Product is “which wrapper delivers it.” Location is “taxable or IRA.” Size is the one that should be set for the date on the calendar, and then left alone until that date arrives.

4. Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)

Same list for every reader. Sunday morning October 18 prints — not a buy list, not an alert.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$81,921 Sunday morning Oct 18 (~7:55 AM ET; Coinbase bid/ask); Yahoo ~$81,921. ~7-day Coinbase high ~$84,262 (Oct 12) / low ~$79,676 (Oct 15). Issue 6 Sunday AM Oct 11 ~$83,083.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $46.15 close Fri Oct 16 (Yahoo); 0.25% expense ratio (Farside fee row).
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $70.85 close Fri Oct 16 (Yahoo); 0.25%.
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,413 Sunday morning Oct 18 (Coinbase / Yahoo). Issue 6 Sunday AM ~$2,504. ~7-day Coinbase high ~$2,577 (Oct 12) / low ~$2,313 (Oct 15).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $54.51 close Fri Oct 16 (Yahoo); 0.25%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside): Oct 12 −$65.4M; Oct 13 +$175.7M; Oct 14 −$261.4M; Oct 15 +$5.1M; Oct 16 −$82.4M; week Oct 12–16 ≈ −$228.4M. Ether funds (Farside): Oct 12 −$85.4M; Oct 13 +$24.8M; Oct 14 −$129.5M; Oct 15 −$60.3M; Oct 16 −$69.7M; week ≈ −$320.1M. Combined week ≈ −$548.5M.

5. What we will cover next

The Fed meets October 27–28, and October 28 is the decision date, the same way we treated September 17. For paid subscribers, the first paid note maps the hike, hold, and cut outcomes against FedWatch and the September projections; it is scheduled for Monday, October 26, with a read-through after the statement. Next Sunday’s free issue frames the meeting as usual.

If you have a real job, you do not need to resize every time a print moves the odds. You need the week’s facts, one constraint that survives a 48-hour round trip, and the date of the next actual decision. That is the brief.

Disclosure: The author holds BTC, ETH, and IBIT as of October 18, 2026. The author does not trade any name covered in this post from 3 calendar days before to 3 calendar days after publication (October 15–October 21, 2026 for a Sunday October 18 publish). One pre-scheduled automatic recurring purchase of $100 of BTC on Coinbase executed overnight October 17–18, inside that window; it was not a discretionary trade. The author receives no compensation from any company covered here. This is general research, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Sources: Coinbase Advanced Trade BTC-USD / ETH-USD best bid-ask and daily candles (retrieved ~7:55 AM ET Oct 18, 2026); Yahoo Finance quotes for BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, FBTC, ETHA (same window; ETF closes Fri Oct 16); Farside Investors spot ETF flow tables, Bitcoin and Ethereum (retrieved ~7:55 AM ET Oct 18, 2026); BLS CPI, September 2026; CNBC on September CPI vs consensus; CME FedWatch via secondary reports: ActionForex, Oct 16, Invezz, Oct 16, and the Kryptomagazin FedWatch terminal (as of 06:01 UTC Oct 18); U.S. Senate roll call Vote 234 on CLARITY (Sep 15, 49–50; no new cloture since).

Issue 6 — Flows can reverse twice; the decision date does not

Nils Roed — Sun, 11 Oct 2026 20:22:06 GMT

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)

This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

1. What Viking Sats is

The free layer stays what it has been: the week’s facts, one constraint, and the public watchlist. Paid depth — sizing, taxable vs IRA, ETF vs coin — opens Sunday October 18 at $20/month, $200/year, or $300 Founding Member. This Sunday stays fully free.

2. What mattered this week

Spot prices gave back the quiet firmness of Issue 5’s Sunday. Issue 5 closed Sunday morning October 4 near $85,276 Bitcoin. Sunday morning October 11, Coinbase printed near $83,083 and Yahoo near $83,083 — about 2.5 percent softer. The path was an early-week high then a mid-week drawdown: Coinbase’s band since Issue 5 ran from an October 5 high near $86,996 to an October 8 low near $80,315. Ethereum Sunday morning sat about $2,504 (Coinbase / Yahoo), roughly 7 percent softer than Issue 5’s ~$2,700, with a week high near $2,739 (October 4) and a low near $2,405 (October 8).

ETF flows reversed hard — again. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds lost $89.8 million on October 5, took in $118.8 million on October 6, then lost $484.9 million and $244.1 million on October 7–8, then took in a small $21.1 million on Friday October 9 — about −$678.9 million for the five sessions (Farside). That is a sharp reversal from Issue 5’s published provisional week of about +$82.9 million (Farside has since filled the October 2 BlackRock blanks; that prior week revises higher, to about +$241 million — either way, this week is a different sign and a different scale). Ether funds printed five consecutive outflow sessions — about −$542.2 million for the week versus Issue 5’s about −$118 million (Farside). Combined Bitcoin-plus-ether product flows for those five sessions were about −$1.22 billion.

Friday’s listed closes (markets closed for the weekend): IBIT $46.55, FBTC $71.54, ETHA $55.99 (Yahoo / Exa) — softer than Issue 5’s Friday October 2 IBIT / FBTC prints ($47.73 / $73.33). (Note: Issue 5 cited ETHA at $20.11; today’s Yahoo series shows ETHA near $56–$60 for early October — we use the current series and flag the discrepancy.)

Secondary reports of CME FedWatch into Sunday still put October 27–28 nearer a hold: roughly ~80–82% hold / ~18–20% hike (Kryptomagazin FedWatch terminal as of October 11 at 20.0% hike / 80.0% hold; Growbeansprout citing FedWatch as of October 11 at 81.6% hold). That band is essentially unchanged from Issue 5’s weekend ~18–20% / ~80–82% — even after a billion-dollar combined outflow week. Those odds will still move with the data. Process on the same calendar: no new CLARITY cloture this week. The September 15 result still stands — 49–50, short of sixty, with a motion to reconsider on the table. We report the process, not a price thesis. September CPI is scheduled Wednesday October 14 at 8:30 AM ET (BLS) — a data print on the path. The decision date is unchanged: October 28.

3. The useful frame this week: flows can reverse twice; the decision date does not

Issue 5’s free frame was that the inflow streak ended and the decision date did not. Location and product still matter; Issue 4 already walked account location. This week’s free frame is the next constraint: flows can reverse twice; the decision date does not.

A $2.4 billion Bitcoin-ETF week, then an $83 million week, then a −$679 million week, can all be true in three Sundays. So can FedWatch sitting near ~80% hold while spot and listed products sell off. Session and week prints move. Probability flashes move. Statement day — October 28 — does not. If the position only made sense while last Sunday’s cooled-inflow week felt like “enough confirmation to wait,” or only while this week’s outflow week feels like a thesis break, it was sized for a flow print. Flow prints reverse. Twice, in two weeks, is the point.

Wednesday’s CPI is on that path. It is a print. It is not the meeting. Treat it as input to the same calendar, not as a substitute for sizing through statement day.

The letter only names that constraint. Thesis is “do I want Bitcoin or Ethereum exposure.” Product is “which wrapper delivers it.” Those are different questions from size and from location.

4. Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)

Same list for every reader. Sunday morning October 11 prints — not a buy list, not an alert.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$83,083 Sunday morning Oct 11 (~7:57 AM ET; Coinbase bid/ask); Yahoo ~$83,083. ~7-day Coinbase high ~$86,996 (Oct 5) / low ~$80,315 (Oct 8). Issue 5 Sunday AM Oct 4 ~$85,276.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $46.55 close Fri Oct 9 (Yahoo); 0.25% expense ratio (Farside fee row). (U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend.)
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $71.54 close Fri Oct 9 (Yahoo); 0.25%.
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,504 Sunday morning Oct 11 (Coinbase / Yahoo). Issue 5 Sunday AM ~$2,700. ~7-day Coinbase high ~$2,739 (Oct 4) / low ~$2,405 (Oct 8).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $55.99 close Fri Oct 9 (Yahoo / Exa); 0.25%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside): Oct 5 −$89.8M; Oct 6 +$118.8M; Oct 7 −$484.9M; Oct 8 −$244.1M; Oct 9 +$21.1M; week Oct 5–9 ≈ −$678.9M. Ether funds (Farside): Oct 5 −$50.8M; Oct 6 −$201.9M; Oct 7 −$160.9M; Oct 8 −$72.5M; Oct 9 −$56.1M; week ≈ −$542.2M. Combined week ≈ −$1.22B.

5. What we will cover next

The next FOMC is October 27–28; we will treat October 28 as the decision date the same way we treated September 17. September CPI on October 14 is a data print on the path — not a substitute for statement day. Paid depth (sizing, taxable vs IRA, ETF vs coin) opens Sunday October 18 at $20/month, $200/year, or $300 Founding Member; this Sunday stays free.

If you have a real job, you do not need a new thesis every Sunday. You need the week’s facts, one constraint that survives a double flow reverse, and a date for the next actual decision. That is the brief.

Disclosure: The author holds BTC and ETH as of October 11, 2026. The author does not trade any name covered in this post from 3 calendar days before to 3 calendar days after publication (October 8–October 14, 2026 for a Sunday October 11 publish). The author receives no compensation from any company covered here. This is general research, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Sources: Coinbase Advanced Trade BTC-USD / ETH-USD best bid-ask and daily candles (retrieved ~7:54–7:57 AM ET Oct 11, 2026); Yahoo Finance chart API BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, FBTC, ETHA (same window; ETF closes Fri Oct 9; Exa library secondary for Fri closes); Farside Investors U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flow tables (retrieved ~7:54–7:57 AM ET Oct 11, 2026; Oct 2 BlackRock blanks now filled vs Issue 5 provisional); CME FedWatch via secondary reports (Kryptomagazin as-of Oct 11 11:01 UTC: 20% hike / 80% hold; Growbeansprout as-of Oct 11: 81.6% hold); U.S. Senate roll call Vote 234 on CLARITY (Sep 15 49–50 still stands; no new cloture this week); BLS CPI release schedule (Sep CPI Wed Oct 14, 8:30 AM ET).

Issue 4 — Taxable vs IRA

Nils Roed — Sun, 27 Sep 2026 13:10:37 GMT

Sunday, September 27, 2026

Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)

This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

1. What Viking Sats is

2. What mattered this week

The week after the hike was quieter on the Fed calendar and louder in the brokerage products. Issue 3 closed Sunday morning September 20 near $80,453–$80,454 Bitcoin. Sunday morning September 27, Coinbase and Yahoo both printed near $84,877–$84,883 — about 5.5 percent firmer. The path was a Monday spike, then a grind: Coinbase’s seven-day band since Issue 3 ran from a September 20 low near $80,085 to a September 21 high near $87,397. Ethereum Sunday morning sat about $2,708–$2,709 (Coinbase / Yahoo), roughly 5 percent above Issue 3’s ~$2,579, with a week low near $2,564 (September 20) and a high near $2,807 (September 21).

ETF flows carried the tape more than any new SEP print. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds took in $999.0 million on Monday September 21, then $714.7 million, $346.9 million, $190.7 million, and $134.5 million through Friday September 25 — about $2.39 billion for the five sessions (Farside). Adding Friday September 18 and Thursday September 17 makes a seven-session inflow streak of about $2.98 billion. September month-to-date Bitcoin flows through September 25 are about +$2.70 billion on the Issue 3 Farside MTD plus this week’s sessions. Ether funds were the same direction: +$270.0 million, +$162.2 million, +$104.5 million, +$66.1 million, and +$87.0 million across September 21–25 — about +$690 million for the week (Farside). Combined Bitcoin-plus-ether product flows for those five sessions were about $3.08 billion.

Friday’s listed closes (markets closed for the weekend): IBIT $47.57, FBTC $73.05, ETHA $20.31 (Yahoo) — all firmer than Issue 3’s Friday September 18 prints ($46.02 / $70.66 / $19.92).

Secondary reports of CME FedWatch into the weekend put the next meeting — October 27–28 — nearer a hike than the coin-flip Issue 3 cited after September 16. One commonly cited flash around September 26 put another +25 basis points near ~64% (hold the rest). Those odds will still move with the data. Process on the same calendar: no new CLARITY cloture this week. The September 15 result still stands — 49–50, short of sixty, with a motion to reconsider on the table. We report the process, not a price thesis.

3. The useful frame this week: location, not the streak

Issue 3’s frame was size for October 28, not Wednesday’s dump or Friday’s rebound. That date has not moved. This week’s free frame is the constraint that survives even when flows are green: account location.

A $2.4 billion Bitcoin-ETF week and a quiet Fed week can both be true. Neither answers whether the next IBIT or ETHA share belongs in a taxable brokerage account or a tax-advantaged IRA — or whether the reader wanted the coin itself instead of the fund. Thesis is “do I want Bitcoin or Ethereum exposure.” Location is “which wrapper holds the exposure.” Those are different questions. Mixing them is how a W-2 reader turns a research brief into an accidental tax event.

A few public mechanics, not a recommendation:

In a taxable brokerage account, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF shares are securities. Sales typically show up on year-end brokerage statements (Form 1099-B and related). Wash-sale rules that apply to stocks and ETFs can disallow a loss if the same or a “substantially identical” security is bought in the 30 days before or after a loss sale (IRS Publication 550; standard brokerage education pages). Direct coins sit under the IRS digital-asset rules as capital assets — a different reporting path from listed ETF shares. In an IRA, gains and losses generally do not hit the current-year return the way a taxable sale does; Traditional and Roth distribution rules differ. Selling at a loss in a taxable account and buying the same security inside an IRA can still create a wash-sale problem under published IRS guidance — educational fact, not a playbook.

A practical rule, not a recommendation: treat location as a decision you make once with eyes open, not as a patch after a green ETF week. If the position only made sense while Monday’s $999 million print felt like confirmation, it was sized for a streak. Streaks reverse. Account wrappers do not. Paid depth from October 4 is sizing, taxable vs IRA, and ETF vs coin — not more coins or hot takes. This free letter only names the constraint.

4. Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)

Same list for every reader. Sunday morning September 27 prints — not a buy list, not an alert.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$84,877–$84,883 Sunday morning Sep 27 (~8:00 AM ET; Coinbase product/bid-ask and Yahoo). ~7-day Coinbase high ~$87,397 (Sep 21) / low ~$80,085 (Sep 20). Issue 3 Sunday AM Sep 20 ~$80,453–$80,454.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $47.57 close Fri Sep 25 (Yahoo); 0.25% expense ratio. (U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend.)
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $73.05 close Fri Sep 25 (Yahoo); 0.25%.
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,708–$2,709 Sunday morning Sep 27 (Coinbase / Yahoo). Issue 3 Sunday AM ~$2,579. ~7-day Coinbase high ~$2,807 (Sep 21) / low ~$2,564 (Sep 20).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $20.31 close Fri Sep 25 (Yahoo); 0.25%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside): Sep 21 +$999.0M; Sep 22 +$714.7M; Sep 23 +$346.9M; Sep 24 +$190.7M; Sep 25 +$134.5M; week ≈ +$2,386M; seven-session streak Sep 17–25 ≈ +$2,978M; Sep MTD through Sep 25 ≈ +$2,699M. Ether funds (Farside): Sep 21 +$270.0M; Sep 22 +$162.2M; Sep 23 +$104.5M; Sep 24 +$66.1M; Sep 25 +$87.0M; week ≈ +$690M.

5. What we will cover next

This is the last free Sunday. Paid depth starts October 4 at $20/month or $200/year: sizing, taxable vs IRA, ETF vs coin — not more coins or hot takes. The free layer stays what it has been: the week’s facts, one constraint, and the public watchlist. The next FOMC is October 27–28; we will treat October 28 as the decision date the same way we treated September 17.

If you have a real job, you do not need a new thesis every Sunday. You need the week’s facts, one constraint that survives a quiet Fed week, and a date for the next actual decision. That is the brief.

Viking Sats, LLC — Georgia. This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

Sources: Coinbase Advanced Trade BTC-USD / ETH-USD best bid-ask, ticker, and daily candles (retrieved ~7:58–8:00 AM ET Sep 27, 2026); Yahoo Finance chart API BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, FBTC, ETHA (same window; ETF closes Fri Sep 25); Farside Investors U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flow tables (retrieved Sep 27, 2026); Decrypt / Kryptomagazin secondary streak readouts cross-checking Farside; CME FedWatch via secondary reports (~64% October hike flash ~Sep 26; earlier Sep 24 flashes higher); U.S. Senate / Paul Hastings process notes on CLARITY (no new cloture this week; Sep 15 49–50 still stands); IRS digital-asset FAQs; IRS Publication 550 / Fidelity wash-sale education (general mechanics only). Fact table: /workspace/viking-sats/issue-04-facts.md.

Issue 3 — After the hike

Nils Roed — Sun, 20 Sep 2026 12:18:17 GMT

Sunday, September 20, 2026

Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)

This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

1. What Viking Sats is

2. What mattered this week

The calendar Issue 2 sized for arrived. The Federal Open Market Committee met September 15–16 and on Wednesday raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimous. Chair Kevin Warsh’s press-conference line matched Jackson Hole: the Committee was not confident underlying inflation was moving to 2 percent clearly and at sufficient speed, so it removed “a dose of accommodation.” It was the first hike since 2023.

The new Summary of Economic Projections is the lasting print, not the Wednesday headline. Median real GDP is 2.3 percent this year and 2.4 percent next. Median total PCE inflation is 3.7 percent this year and 2.3 percent next; unemployment holds near 4.1 percent. The median appropriate federal funds rate is 4.1 percent at year-end 2026 and again at year-end 2027, then 3.9 percent in 2028 and 3.6 percent in 2029. Warsh again submitted no personal projection. Secondary readouts of the dots say sixteen of eighteen participants (Warsh does not submit a dot) expect at least one more hike this year; four of those see two more; two see the Committee stop after this move.

Bitcoin did not trade the week as a straight line. Issue 2 closed Sunday morning September 13 near $76,820–$76,825. Sunday morning September 20, Coinbase and Yahoo both printed near $80,453–$80,454 — about 4.7 percent firmer. The path mattered more than the net: Coinbase’s seven-day band ran from a September 15 low near $74,888 to a September 19 high near $81,925. FOMC day (September 16) closed near $76,145 after probing the mid-$74,900s. Friday September 18 then ran from the mid-$76,000s to a high near $81,388 and closed near $80,875. Ethereum Sunday morning sat about $2,579 (Coinbase / Yahoo), roughly 3.9 percent above Issue 2’s ~$2,482, with a week low near $2,357 (September 15) and a high near $2,668 (September 19).

ETF flows told the same two-day story. On FOMC day, U.S. spot Bitcoin funds lost $295.9 million and ether funds lost $224.1 million — about $520 million combined (Farside). Thursday Bitcoin funds took back $159.5 million; Friday they took in $433.0 million (Fidelity’s FBTC alone +$310.7 million).

Meeting-week Bitcoin net (September 15–18) was still about −$154 million after the −$450.4 million session on September 15, but Wednesday-through-Friday was a net +$296.6 million. Ether funds were −$261.7 million across those four sessions even after Friday’s +$143.7 million. September month-to-date Bitcoin flows through September 18 were still about +$313 million (Farside daily sum).

Process on the same calendar: Tuesday’s Senate cloture vote on the motion to proceed to the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) failed 49–50 — short of sixty. That is not final passage either way; a motion to reconsider was entered. We report the vote, not a price thesis.

Secondary reports of CME FedWatch after the hike put the next meeting — October 27–28 — near a coin flip on another 25 basis points (one flash reading ~49.8% hike / ~50.2% hold). Those odds will move with the data.

3. The useful frame this week: the next decision date

Issue 2’s frame was size for the SEP, not the ETF streak. The SEP printed. The frame does not expire.

A $296 million three-day Bitcoin inflow after a $520 million combined FOMC-day outflow can both be true. Neither answers whether October needs another hike. The median dots already pencil year-end 2026 at 4.1 percent — one more quarter-point from here if that median holds. Bitcoin and the spot ETFs will reprice on that tape the way they did after Jackson Hole and after Wednesday’s statement: not because a Discord called it, but because the two-year and risk assets share a screen.

A practical rule, not a recommendation: treat the next decision date as October 28 (statement day), not Wednesday’s dump or Friday’s rebound. If the position only made sense while Friday’s $433 million print felt like confirmation, it was sized for a session. Sessions reverse. Meetings do not. Account location (taxable vs IRA) is the free teaser next Sunday and the paid layer from October 4 — not this letter.

4. Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)

Same list for every reader. Sunday morning September 20 prints — not a buy list, not an alert.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$80,453–$80,454 Sunday morning Sep 20 (~8:10 AM ET; Coinbase product/bid-ask and Yahoo). ~7-day Coinbase high ~$81,925 (Sep 19) / low ~$74,888 (Sep 15). Issue 2 Sunday AM Sep 13 ~$76,820–$76,825.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $46.02 close Fri Sep 18 (Yahoo); 0.25% expense ratio. (U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend.)
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $70.66 close Fri Sep 18 (Yahoo); 0.25%. Friday flow +$310.7 million (Farside).
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,579 Sunday morning Sep 20 (Coinbase / Yahoo). Issue 2 Sunday AM ~$2,482. ~7-day Coinbase high ~$2,668 (Sep 19) / low ~$2,357 (Sep 15).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $19.92 close Fri Sep 18 (Yahoo); 0.25%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside): Sep 15 −$450.4M; Sep 16 −$295.9M; Sep 17 +$159.5M; Sep 18 +$433.0M; Sep MTD through Sep 18 ≈ +$313M. Ether funds (Farside): Sep 15 −$142.0M; Sep 16 −$224.1M; Sep 17 −$39.3M; Sep 18 +$143.7M.

5. What we will cover next

Issue 4 (Sunday September 27) is the free taxable-vs-IRA teaser — why account location matters once IBIT and ETHA are the default on-ramp, without turning this letter into a tax return. Paid depth starts October 4 at $20/month or $200/year: sizing, taxable vs IRA, ETF vs coin — not more coins or hot takes. The next FOMC is October 27–28; we will treat October 28 as the decision date the same way we treated September 17.

If you have a real job, you do not need a new thesis every Sunday. You need the week’s facts, one constraint that survives a Fed week, and a date for the next actual decision. That is the brief.

Viking Sats, LLC — Georgia. This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

Sources: Coinbase Advanced Trade BTC-USD / ETH-USD ticker and daily candles (retrieved ~8:09–8:10 AM ET Sep 20, 2026); Yahoo Finance chart API BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, FBTC, ETHA (same window; ETF closes Fri Sep 18); Farside Investors U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flow tables (retrieved Sep 20, 2026); Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, FOMC decision / SEP projections Sep 16, 2026; Warsh press-conference opening transcript PDF Sep 16, 2026; CNBC Fed rate decision Sep 16, 2026; EY FOMC Meeting Sep 15–16 note; CME FedWatch via secondary reports (BlockBeats / Gate) post-hike October odds; U.S. Senate roll call / The Hill / NYT on CLARITY cloture Sep 15, 2026 (49–50). Fact table: /workspace/viking-sats/issue-03-facts.md.

Issue 2 — Size for the SEP

Nils Roed — Sun, 13 Sep 2026 13:22:52 GMT

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)

This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

1. What Viking Sats is

2. What mattered this week

Issue 1 closed Sunday evening August 30 near $78,500 Bitcoin. Sunday morning September 13, Coinbase and Yahoo both printed near $76,820–$76,825 — about 2.1 percent softer than that Sunday print. The seven-day window was wider than the net change: on Coinbase, roughly a September 6 high near $80,560 and a September 11 low near $76,030 (Yahoo’s seven-day band was similar, high near $80,430 / low near $76,160). Ethereum Sunday morning sat about $2,482 (Coinbase / Yahoo), roughly flat to slightly firmer versus Issue 1’s ~$2,470–$2,475 Sunday evening — with a wider week that included a September 11 Coinbase high near $2,667 and a September 10 low near $2,404.

ETF flows did not go one direction. After the August 28 Bitcoin-fund outflow (−$201.8 million) that ended a nine-day streak, the next session (August 31) took in $216.7 million (TFTC). September 2–4 then added about $1.01 billion. September 8–10 gave about $449 million back over three sessions (TFTC; Farside/CryptoTimes ≈ −$449.5 million). September month-to-date through September 10 was still a net +$320.7 million (TFTC). Ether funds were choppier: about +$120 million September 2–4, about −$19 million September 8–10 (TFTC / provisional Sep 10).

The larger Treasury long-end liquidity-support buybacks started in the window that opened September 9. The first expanded operation reported September 10 accepted about $5.19 billion of up to $6 billion in 10- to 20-year coupons (Treasury / secondary reporting of that op). That is process, not a price target.

The calendar that matters next week is the Fed. The FOMC meets September 15–16 — a projections meeting with a new Summary of Economic Projections. After Friday’s August CPI (headline +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y; core +0.3% m/m), secondary reports of CME FedWatch put September hike odds in the high-80s to about 91% (up from roughly 71% as of September 11), with hold the rest. Those odds will still move with any remaining data before the meeting. Chair Warsh’s August 28 Jackson Hole line still frames the tape: prices as the “predominant focus,” 12-month PCE 3.7 percent, six-month change 4.1 percent. Same week, Senate Daily Press still lists a cloture vote on the motion to proceed to the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) for Tuesday September 15 at 2:15 p.m. — sixty votes to take the bill up, not final passage.

3. The useful frame this week: the SEP, not the streak

Issue 1’s frame was size for the Friday. This week’s frame is size for the calendar.

A $1 billion inflow week and a $450 million outflow week can both be true in the same September. Neither answers the question the FOMC will put on the table: where the Committee thinks rates and inflation land in the new projections. Bitcoin and the spot ETFs will reprice on that tape the way they did after Jackson Hole — not because a Discord called it, but because the two-year and risk assets share a screen.

A practical rule, not a recommendation: treat the next decision date as September 17 (the day after the meeting), not the last green or red ETF day. If the position only made sense while September 2–4 was printing nine-figure inflows, it was sized for a streak. Streaks break. Meetings do not. Account location (taxable vs IRA) still matters; that is the paid layer later, not this free letter.

4. Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)

Same list for every reader. Sunday morning September 13 prints — not a buy list, not an alert.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$76,820–$76,825 Sunday morning Sep 13 (~8:16 AM ET; Coinbase product/bid-ask and Yahoo). ~7-day Coinbase high ~$80,560 (Sep 6) / low ~$76,030 (Sep 11). Issue 1 Sunday eve Aug 30 ~$78,500.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $43.77 close Fri Sep 11 (Yahoo); 0.25% expense ratio. (U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend.)
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $67.25 close Fri Sep 11 (Yahoo); 0.25%.
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,482 Sunday morning Sep 13 (Coinbase / Yahoo). Issue 1 Sunday eve ~$2,470–$2,475. ~7-day Coinbase high ~$2,667 (Sep 11) / low ~$2,404 (Sep 10).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $19.16 close Fri Sep 11 (Yahoo); 0.25%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (TFTC): Aug 28 −$201.8M (streak break); Aug 31 +$216.7M; Sep 2–4 ≈ +$1.01B; Sep 8–10 ≈ −$449M (three-day outflow); Sep MTD through Sep 10 +$320.7M. Ether funds: Sep 2–4 ≈ +$120M; Sep 8–10 ≈ −$19M.

5. What we will cover next

Issue 3 (Sunday September 20) is the FOMC recap and the new SEP — what the Committee published, how FedWatch moved, and whether Bitcoin ETF flows stayed positive after the meeting week. CLARITY cloture is process on the same calendar; we will report the vote result, not a price thesis. Taxable vs IRA remains queued for the free teaser on September 27 and the paid layer from October 4.

If you have a real job, you do not need a new thesis every Sunday. You need the week’s facts, one constraint that survives a Fed week, and a date for the next actual decision. That is the brief.

Viking Sats, LLC — Georgia. This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

Sources: Coinbase Advanced Trade BTC-USD / ETH-USD product, best bid-ask, and daily candles (retrieved ~8:16 AM ET Sep 13, 2026); Yahoo Finance chart API BTC-USD, ETH-USD, IBIT, FBTC, ETHA (same window; ETF closes Fri Sep 11); TFTC Bitcoin ETF Flows August & September 2026 (SoSoValue / issuer); CryptoTimes / Farside (Sep 10 flow cross-check); U.S. Treasury long-end buyback window from Sep 9 / Sep 10 op (~$5.19B of $6B); CME FedWatch via secondary reports Fri–Sun Sep 12–13 (high-80s to ~91% hike after August CPI; ~71% as of Sep 11); August CPI secondary reports (headline +0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y; core +0.3% m/m); Warsh Jackson Hole Aug 28, 2026; U.S. Senate Daily Press (retrieved Sep 13 — CLARITY cloture Tue Sep 15, 2:15 p.m.). Fact table: /workspace/viking-sats/issue-02-facts.md.

Issue 1 — Size for the Friday

Nils Roed — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:23:57 GMT

Published by Viking Sats, LLC (Georgia)

This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.

What Viking Sats is

Viking Sats is a research brief for high-income W-2 professionals — physicians, pilots, engineers, partners — who have a real job and want a grown-up crypto playbook. It is not a Discord, not a trade desk, and not a personal alert service. We write about Bitcoin and the listed products most readers actually use: spot ETFs, brokerage accounts, IRAs. The letter is paid later because the first job is to show the work. Readers already know how to save; what they usually lack is a calm frame for an asset that can rally about 24 percent in four weeks and give more than four thousand dollars of it back in an afternoon.

What mattered this week

The week was loud. The weekly close was not.

Bitcoin finished last Sunday (August 23) at $77,755, per Yahoo Finance. As of Sunday evening, August 30, it was near $78,500. In between it tagged $81,347 on Friday and printed a low of $76,909 the same session. From the July 30 close of $64,725 to Thursday’s close of $80,258, that is about a 24 percent run — then a reminder that Bitcoin still trades as a risk asset when the Fed talks.

Two things built the run. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury said it would at least double long-end liquidity-support buybacks, from a $2 billion maximum per operation to at least $4 billion, for 10- to 30-year nominal coupons, starting September 9 through November 4. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs then took in money for nine straight sessions (August 17–27): about $3.04 billion, including a $606.3 million day on August 20, per TFTC (SoSoValue / issuer reports). The August 24–28 week was still a net $924.5 million inflow. August through Friday is about $3.3 billion.

Friday ended the streak. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote did not cut or hike. He said the 2 percent PCE target is “firm” and “fixed,” 12-month PCE inflation is 3.7 percent, the six-month change is 4.1 percent, and summer readings “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” He added: “We should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.” CME FedWatch, per CNBC after the speech, put September hike odds at 55.7 percent, up about 20 points on the day. The two-year yield rose to 4.31 percent.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.8 million of net outflows Friday (ARKB −$114.9 million led). Combined assets fell from about $100.9 billion Thursday to near $97.6 billion Friday. Ether funds did not follow: about $102 million of net inflows, a tenth straight session (Farside, via The Crypto Times).

The FOMC meets September 15–16, a projections meeting. Senate leadership has teed up a procedural cloture vote on the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) around September 15 — a vote on whether to take the bill up, not on passage.

The useful frame this week: sizing

The week’s facts do not say whether Bitcoin is going to $100,000. They say how fast a position can move after a good month.

A 24 percent four-week advance, then a Friday range of more than $4,400, is not a rounding error on a small sleeve. It is the difference between a position you can ignore at work and one that starts dictating how you feel about a bonus you have not received yet.

Bitcoin is now liquid enough, and ETF-accessible enough, that it reprices on the same tape as the two-year note. That is a feature if you wanted a macro asset in a brokerage account. It is a problem if the size only made sense on Thursday.

A practical rule, not a recommendation: pick the share of liquid net worth you can watch fall by a third without changing how you fund retirement, tuition, or a tax bill — then stop adding because a nine-day ETF streak feels like confirmation. The streak ended in one session. The $924 million weekly inflow is still the bigger number. Size for the Friday, not the streak. Account location still matters; that is a later issue.

Public watchlist (facts, not recommendations)

Same list for every reader. Last prints and reported fund facts — not a buy list, not an alert.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD): ~$78,500, Sunday evening Aug. 30 (Yahoo Finance). Week high $81,347 / Friday low $76,909. July 30 close $64,725.
iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $43.90 close Friday Aug. 28; ~$46.5 billion net assets; 0.25% expense ratio (Yahoo). Friday flow −$33.4 million (TFTC).
Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin (FBTC): $67.44 close Friday; Friday flow $0.0 million net (TFTC).
Ethereum (ETH-USD): ~$2,470–$2,475 Sunday evening (Yahoo).
iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA): $18.37 close Friday; ~$5.4 billion net assets; 0.25% expense ratio (Yahoo). Spot ether ETFs +~$102 million Friday, 10-session inflow streak.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs: nine-day streak through Thursday ~$3.04 billion; Friday −$201.8 million; week of Aug. 24–28 still +$924.5 million; August MTD ~$3.3 billion (TFTC). Combined assets ~$97.6 billion Friday.

What we will cover next

Issue 2 stays on the September 15–16 FOMC and the new Summary of Economic Projections, whether Bitcoin ETF flows stay positive after one down day, and the September 9 start of the larger Treasury buybacks. We will unpack account location — taxable brokerage versus IRA — now that IBIT and ETHA are the default on-ramp for people who will never self-custody. The CLARITY cloture vote is the same calendar week as the Fed; we will treat it as process, not a price target.

If you have a real job, you do not need a new thesis every Sunday. You need the week’s facts, one constraint that survives a Friday, and a date for the next actual decision. That is the brief.

Viking Sats, LLC — Georgia. This is general research, not investment, tax, or legal advice.